Rubber Export Industry In Thailand Economics Essay

Rubber export is really important for Thailand. It is besides considered as one of the state ‘s major industries. For gum elastic export, it has been contributed a immense portion on Thai economic and it has been successful industry with high growing rate for a long clip. However, plentifulness of informations beginnings evidently prove the diminution tendency of this export late. So this research has analyzed the gum elastic industry ‘s state of affairs by utilizing most Impacts Events during 2006 to 2009 which are cardinal detering factors ( high rainfall, diminishing in demand-supplies, fluctuated no-good monetary value and excessively apprehended tical ) . Furthermore, this undertaking would besides mention to the competence of Malaysia -the rivals of Thailand in order to comparison and discoursing why Thai gum elastic export is traveling to lose its market portion at this recent period. Finally, for this research chiefly implement the correlativity analysis into the processing analysis to gauge additive relationship between gum elastic export and variable factors of the industry besides including recommendations in order to develop and modify Thai rubber ‘s fight in the universe market.

Introduction

The gum elastic merchandise fabrication industry is one of the state ‘s major industries. The word ‘Rubber ‘ refers to natural gum elastic which is an of import natural stuff utilized in fabricating any gum elastic merchandises and man-made gum elastic.

The exported natural gum elastic was categorized into three groups: ribbed smoke-cured sheets, standard Thai gum elastic and concentrated latex.

Ribbed Smoked Sheet ( RSS ) is the most of import merchandise, doing up 70 per centum of the entire gross revenues. They are chiefly used in car tyres fabricating

Standard Thai Rubber ( STR ) is another type of gum elastic class which are packaged in block, they are widely used in American and European market.

Concentrated latex is used as natural stuff in the industry of gum elastic baseball mitts, rubber, balloon, etc.

About 90 per centum of Thailand ‘s natural gum elastic production is for export and merely 10 per centum of all gum elastic produced in Thailand is used for domestic ingestion. Concentrating on the type of merchandise, the largest proportion of entire no-good merchandise is standard Thai gum elastic which takes 40 per centum of the sum. The followers is ribbed smoke-cured sheet. The export criterion Thai gum elastic has decreased about 63 per centum comparing to the same period in 2008, besides ribbed smoke-cured sheet which has decreased 50 per centum of growing rate.

The major importers of Thai gum elastic are China, Malaysia and Japan. These 3 importers import about 65 per centum of Thai rubber export value. However, even though Thailand is the universe ‘s largest natural gum elastic manufacturer and exporter but Thailand tends to lose their market portion to chiefly Indonesia which expected to continuously growing. Besides Malaysia, who has reduced its imports of Thai gum elastic harmonizing the rise of natural gum elastic manufacturers, is expected to be an exporter.

Figure 1: Tai Rubber Major Importers

In antecedently twelvemonth, Thailand which makes up 33 per centum of the planetary natural gum elastic supply, production fell an annualized 21.6 per centum during the first four months of 2009, harmonizing to informations from the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. The expected tendency of gum elastic export in following twelvemonth is to be lightly increased from 2009. However there are several hazardous factors that Thailand should see in order to stay the largest gum elastic exporter of the universe market, such as the dramatically changed of conditions, demand and supply of natural gum elastic and stableness of gum elastic monetary values.

The intent and aims of this research are to place the major jobs that Thailand loses its fight to other states, to analyze the alterations in Thai rubber export industry and figure out the influence factors in both encouraging and detering facet and to happen possible ways to maintain its advantages. Besides this research of Thai rubber export industry is traveling to allow the research workers understand more about this concern and its variables. In add-ons, research workers will be able to use economic sciences knowledge to analyse the existent job. The consequence from this research would assist people concern more on Thai rubber export ‘s state of affairs and likely urge utile suited ways to face with recent issue through an entrance job.

Literature Review

Harmonizing to the World Rubber Export Statistic, the growing rate in 2009 dramatically decreased from 36.18 to -48.65 comparing between the same period from January to October of 2008 and 2009, which created the lost about 2,900 million US dollar. Recent statements ( Kasikorn Research Center, 2009 ; L. Kittipon, 2008 ; Krungtheb thurakit, 2007 ) have recognized the lag of Thai rubber export ‘s growing in many different facets.

Based on the lag, an of import recent part to the article of Thai rubber export has been analysis by Thai Kasikorn Research Center cited in Bangkok Business newspaper ( January 12, 2009 ) . They stated that the universe production in 2009 has been decreased 4.8 % signifier antecedently twelvemonth. They analyzed 3 likely factors doing this state of affairs. Those are first, the alteration of conditions. Because of unfavourable conditions including heavy rains, the production of 3 major gum elastic exporters, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, decreased for 6 % . However, in the past 2-3 old ages, conditions is one of of import factors of diminishing in natural gum elastic production. Second is the demand of gum elastic which has been diminishing for 5.2 % . Third, monetary values of gum elastic vary to the demand of universe market.

However, what seems to hold been neglected in Thai Kasikorn Research Center ‘s statement is the rough oil monetary value crisis. This significance is an undeniable impact on Thai rubber export which has been explored more in earlier article ( Lakchai Kittipon cited in Than-Setthakij newspaper on October 2-4, 2008 ) . Harmonizing to US ‘s economic crisis has affected indirectly to Thai rubber export, the major importer of Thai gum elastic for their tyres industries, China, has reduced the imports from Thailand because of United State cut down the purchase tires from China. In other custodies, the petroleum oil monetary value created the failing of gum elastic monetary value. Importers will keep and see when there is last monetary value. These can be concluded that gum elastic export depends on buying power in United State and the rough oil monetary value.

Furthermore in Krungtheb thurakit ‘s article ( February 23, 2007 ) , there are other factors that we should take into history which are high cost of production and lacking of authorities support in enlargement of the industry such as engineering, capitals ( cost of investing ) and revenue enhancement efficiency every bit good as other standard in order to assist forcing the gum elastic monetary value to be higher. The authorities should put up the policy and development program in order to assist giving the assurance to those who working with gum elastic.

Methodology

On the paper, research workers would analyse the factors impacting Thai gum elastic export. The variable factors which would be tested in this research are the dramatically changed of conditions, demand and supply of natural gum elastic, stableness of gum elastic monetary values and revenue enhancement of gum elastic export of survey, research workers are traveling to concentrate on Thai rubber export subdivision which data point would be collected in Thai rubber association, rubber research institute of Thailand, Malaysian Rubber Board, Department of export publicity, national statistical office and universe trade organisation and besides from private sectors, information base on 2006 to 2009.

To find which factors have impact on the export, research worker would utilize “ Correlation ” as a method harmonizing to the limited information. Correlation is a step of additive relationship between two random variables X and Y, which ranges between -1 and +1. Perfect positive correlativity ( a correlativity co-efficient of +1 ) implies that as one factor moves, either up or down, the other will travel in lockstep, in the same way. Alternatively, perfect negative correlativity will travel by an equal sum in the opposite way. If the correlativity is 0, the motions of the factors are said to hold no correlativity, they are wholly independency.

THE CHANGED OF WEATHER

Favorable status for Rubber plantation

In order to works gum elastic tree in Thailand, seting country is the considerable factor every bit good as the suited climes for seting. The optimum conditions for the growing of gum elastic are:

Land country: 200 m. above the sea degree, with incline of 12A°C

Temperature: in norm of 24-27A°C throughout the twelvemonth ( hot and humid ) .

Humidity: Between 65-90 %

Rain: mean rainfall should non less than 1,350 millimeters per twelvemonth and non less than 120 yearss of rainfall.

Dirt: Loamy or flaxen dirt and dirt surface deepness non less than 1 m. with pH of 4.0-5.5

Wind: mean wind velocity non more than 1 m/sec. Deep rich dirts with good drainage sooner crumble, well-oxidized and acidic in reaction

This paper would concentrate on rainfall which is the most influence factor on gum elastic production. Harmonizing to statement of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries ( ANRPC ) , altering climatic conditions may impact gum elastic production across the universe.

“ Climate alteration has become an issue of serious concern on the supply potency of natural gum elastic. Apart from autumn in output, even the gum elastic turning parts in major bring forthing states are bit by bit rendered unsuitable for turning gum elastic ” , says the ANRPC study.

The undermentioned graph shows the sum of rainfall comparison to the mean. There were rather heavy rainfall in Thailand and it is chiefly above the mean degree which indicates that it can do implosion therapy job, therefore leads to the harm and diseases of agricultural harvests including gum elastic trees. However the tendency shows the lessening in rainfall by 2009, this may consequences in an addition in supply production in following twelvemonth.

Figure 2: Average Rainfall in Thailand from 2003 – 2009

Rubber end product in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia will drop more than 6 per centum in 2009 after remarkably heavy rains caused implosion therapy, an industry group said on Monday, raising the chance of a monetary value mass meeting to last twelvemonth ‘s extremum. Tight supplies blamed on bad conditions have pushed up hard currency monetary values by more than 10 per centum in the past month, with benchmark Thai RSS3 class now vibrating about $ 2.75 a kilogram — within sight of a 56-year high of $ 3.25 struck last July. Apart from a autumn in output, even the traditional gum elastic turning parts in major bring forthing states are bit by bit being rendered unsuitable for turning gum elastic. Output in the three chief manufacturers, which account for 70 per centum of planetary end product, could steal to 6.45 million dozenss in 2009, down from the October prognosis of 6.62 million and lower than 6.91 million estimated last twelvemonth, harmonizing to the group.

Torrential rain in Thailand ‘s southern part since early November has caused implosion therapy in several countries, including Hat Yai in Songkhla state, which has been declared a catastrophe zone. Around 800,000 hectares ( 2 million estates ) of gum elastic land has been hit by rain and implosion therapy, which has disrupted tapping and hampered conveyance. Supplies are likely to shrivel farther early following twelvemonth during the dry wintering season in Thailand, the universe ‘s largest manufacturer, as trees shed foliages and latex end product falls.

Monetary values of gum elastic sheet, the natural stuff for RSS3, have doubled from $ 1.10 per kilogram in December 2008, the lowest in about seven old ages, due to steady demand while supply was cut by unfavourable conditions in Thailand.

It is pointed out in the study that the fluctuating climatic conditions are a menace to the growing of region-based new ringers. Overall supply of natural gum elastic from the cardinal manufacturer states reduced to 5.1 % during 2009. Major gum elastic bring forthing states including India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, China, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Cambodia projected production falls at different degrees.

Demand AND SUPPLY OF RUBBER

Global demand is now running much further behind supply than we expected. In footings of planetary sufficiency, stocks are hence forecast to lift to a degree last seen ten old ages ago. The undermentioned figure indicates the universe demand for natural gum elastic is somewhat diminishing from old twelvemonth.

Figure 3: World Natural Rubber Demand

Natural gum elastic: World Demand

( ‘000 dozenss unless otherwise indicated )

A

2006

2007

2008

2009

Demand

9,251

9,789

9,480

9,290

Stockss ( B )

2,082

2,233

3,050

3,750

Weeks ‘ ingestion

11.7

11.9

16.7

21.0

Includes International Natural Rubber Organization ( INRO ) reserve disposals after 1999. ( B ) A Global shutting stocks ; year-end.

Beginnings: IRSG ; Economist Intelligence Unit.

Following tabular array summarizes the tendencies in one-year production of NR from 2007 to 2009 in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka. These seven states accounted for 93 % of the planetary production of NR in 2008.

Figure 4: World Natural Rubber Production

Entire production in the seven states contracted 5.1 % in 2009, as per information available up to September 2009. This is the biggest autumn in planetary supply of NR after 1952. Beginnings of the end product autumn in 2009 could be diagnosed by analyzing the alterations in tapped country and mean one-year output. The tapped country shrank in 2008 and 2009 and mean output fell in 2009. Total tapped country in the seven bring forthing states shrank by 366,000 hour angle from 2007 to 2009. Average output, aggregated for the seven bring forthing states, although improved from 1281 kg/ha in 2007 to 1339 kg/ha in 2008, fell to 1283 kg/ha in 2009. A closer image could be obtained by analyzing each state individually.

Thailand registered 5.5 % autumn in production in the 12 months ended 31 August 2009 from 2008 full twelvemonth. Rubber trees in 64,000 hectare in the state were estimated to be replanted in 2009. However, tapped country expanded in 2009 by 21,000 hour angle as the country planted before 6 old ages attained tappable adulthood. The mean output, measured in footings of production per hectare of tapped country increasingly came down from 1723 kg/ha in 2007 to 1698 kg/ha in 2008 and farther to 1586 kg/ha in 2009 due to a host of factors including inauspicious conditions interrupting tapping during the first one-fourth, prolonged wintering in the 2nd one-fourth, comparatively lower monetary value and the export decrease committedness under the IRCo ‘s Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme ( AETS ) .

Demand

China

The effort of going the Earth ‘s largest manufacturer of places and a major exporter of tyres by China may mostly be attributed to its big pool of inexpensive labour and peculiarly to the handiness of imports to make full the spread in the production concatenation. China needs to import rubber natural stuffs which have been really important to guarantee the endurance of the gum elastic merchandises industry. China is by far the universe ‘s biggest market for natural gum elastic, accounting for 26 per centum of planetary use in 2007. Slowing growing in demand in China has had a major impact on the planetary balance for natural gum elastic. We expect the slowing to go on: growing in natural gum elastic use of more than 6 per centum in 2007 will be followed by 3.1 per centum growing in 2008 and an norm of 2.7 per centum in 2009-10. Top 5 major natural gum elastic exporters to China are Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and India.

China market, the largest market of all Thai rubber export merchandise which takes 35 % of market. In 2009 get downing from January to November, China imported gum elastic from Thailand valued $ 1.2 billion which decreased by 31.85 % from $ 1.8 billion in same period of 2008.

Harmonizing to the AFET study, China sees slower gum elastic demand growing, helps husbandmans. It stated that the universe ‘s largest gum elastic consumer expects demand to turn at a slower gait of 7.3 per centum in 2009 and is poised to assist its husbandmans weather convulsion in the car sector, industry functionaries said on Wednesday. Physical gum elastic monetary values have more than halved from July ‘s extremum, with benchmark Thai gum elastic now vibrating about $ 1.45 a kilogram, as a declining planetary recession cuts demand for the trade good. Zhu Xiuyan, president of the China Natural Rubber Association, said on the out of boundss of a conference. “ If the economic system does non demo pronounced recovery, we ca n’t anticipate a mass meeting in gum elastic monetary values. ”

China ‘s State Reserve Bureau has started purchasing gum elastic from domestic farms, with planned a purchase of 50,000 dozenss by mid-April, as the authorities hopes to raise monetary values and protect husbandmans. The sum was in line with a program announced by the Chinese authorities earlier this twelvemonth to buy 65,000 dozenss for province militias for the month of April to stabilise monetary values and protect the husbandmans. China, which imports about half of what it consumes, is forecast to utilize 5.9 million dozenss of gum elastic in 2009, up 7.3 per centum from 2008, when demand rose 8.9 per centum, said Fan Rende, president of the China Rubber Industry Association.

Malaya

Natural gum elastic is one of the major trade good exports of Malaysia. Although the portion of natural gum elastic in the entire exports has been worsening in recent old ages, its part to Malaysia ‘s foreign exchange net incomes is still significant.

Figure 5: Malaya Rubber Production

The above graph show that Malaysia has been increase their no-good production somewhat even though in last two twelvemonth, 2007 and 2008, the production lessening but because of Malaysia has been affect by unseasonal heavy rain and besides rough oil monetary value. But the tendency of Malaysia production is expected to continuously growing. In order to increasing production, late Malaysia has been decrease sum of natural gum elastic from Thailand.

Supply

Concentrating on the type of merchandise, the largest proportion of entire no-good merchandise is STR, Standard Thai Rubber, which takes 40 % of the sum. The export criterion Thai gum elastic 409,670 dozenss in 2009 which has decreased by 63.43 % comparing to the same period in 2008. The followerss are ribbed smoke-cured sheet which besides has decreased by 49.85 % of growing rate from 2008.

Figure 6: Tai Rubber Exports by Types of Rubber

*RSS: Ribbed Smoked Sheet, STR: Standard Thai Rubber, Conc. Latex: Concentrated Latex

Presently, even though Thailand is the universe ‘s largest natural gum elastic manufacturer and exporter but Thailand tends to lose their market portion to chiefly Indonesia which expected to continuously growing. Besides Malaysia, who has reduced its imports of Thai gum elastic harmonizing the rise of natural gum elastic manufacturers, is expected to be an exporter. The following tabular array shows the production of natural gum elastic of five states which account for 93 % of planetary natural gum elastic supply from 2005 to 2007.

Figure 7: Production of Five Major Rubber Producers

THE STABILITY OF RUBBER PRICE

One of the exports hazard is fluctuation of monetary value which should be avoided. Price fluctuations are normal for any trade good and gum elastic is a volatile trade good. Major gum elastic turning states like Thailand have sophisticated fiscal instruments supplying monetary value fluctuation insurance to husbandmans.

Rubber Price in Thailand

Surely, the demand of the market for gum elastic and planetary production end product are core factors. The monetary value of gum elastic is besides linked to the fluctuating monetary value of oil which is a major factor in the production of man-made gum elastic. When oil monetary values are high, the production costs and monetary value of man-made gum elastic will besides increase, which leads states to exchange to utilize more natural rubber.A However, if the natural gum elastic monetary value rises excessively high for the assorted industrial manufacturers, they will return to utilizing more man-made gum elastic which will take to a downward accommodation of the monetary value of natural gum elastic.

Thailand is the universe ‘s biggest gum elastic manufacturer. However, monetary values are besides set by a figure of concealed hands.A The gum elastic market in Thailand is controlled by Singaporean and Malayan investors, and besides by Thai investors.A The Thai authorities has ne’er developed Thailand ‘s function in act uponing monetary values of the planetary gum elastic markets. The authorities administers and controls the gum elastic monetary value flexing to coerce from foreign states and international agencies.A The authorities on a regular basis uses a domestic interventionist attack to maintain monetary values stable as a agency to derive ballots from the gum elastic farmers.A

A Furthermore, the authorities passed a jurisprudence to command the gum elastic monetary value, limit the countries where gum elastic could be grown, and topographic point controls on the assortments grown.A Farmers were non allowed to develop the production of gum elastic themselves.A These controls were put in topographic point to enable Thai rubber to be competitory in the universe market.A However, structural jobs mentioned supra led to the monopolisation of the market by investors who control the production and selling of gum elastic, while the husbandmans became orderlies providing gum elastic to the internal and external markets

Trade Price

Figure 8: Monetary value of Rubber TSR20 in Bangkok

Beginning: The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Kuala Lumpur

Figure 9: Monetary value of Rubber RSS3 in Bangkok

Beginning: The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Kuala Lumpur

From both tabular arraies, it can be observed that Monetary values during 2009 ( January – September ) in all the markets ruled well below the corresponding rates in 2008 ( January – September ) , the spread between monetary values in 2009 and 2008 has narrowed down towards the terminal.

Local monetary value

Figure 10: Rubber Prices of Thai Market

*RSS: Ribbed Smoked Sheet, STR: Standard Thai Rubber, Conc. Latex: Concentrated Latex

The monetary values of gum elastic that considered as good monetary value are around 80-100 Baht/Kg. From the information, gum elastic has best monetary value in twelvemonth 2008, follow by 2007. 2008, ribbed smoke-cured sheet gum elastic were sold as higher monetary value which is 83 Baht/Kg. In the twelvemonth 2009, gum elastic monetary values have failed down to around 40-50 Baht/Kg.

Foreign Exchange Ratess

The exchange rate is the monetary value of one currency expressed in footings of another, and is important to exporters. When the exchange rate rises, goods priced become more expensive in foreign currency so demand for these dearer exports beads, cut downing overall demand, which should take down inflationary force per unit area. A lifting exchange rate tends to assist to control rising prices, potentially leting for lower involvement rates. Conversely, a lower exchange rate, as at nowadays, typically boosts export demand, seting upward force per unit area on rising prices and involvement rates.

A autumn of exchange rate in the export state will do merchandises more dearly-won for importers. Yet a rise in the exchange rate makes imports cheaper, seting downward force per unit area on rising prices and involvement rates.

Figure 11: Foreign Exchange Rate Thai Baht against US Dollar

The above graph show the somewhat appreciating of Thai tical against US $ from 2006 to December 2009. Thai Baht has been continuously appreciated from 2006 until now. The factors that affect Thailand ‘s exports, the exchange rate has the largest consequence on fight.

Excessively apprehended tical over the old old ages has made Thai merchandises more expensive for importer ( excepting flow-through of goods that must be foremost imported into Thailand ) . Our exchange rate relation to our rivals therefore plays a really big function in our international fight.

Analysis

The analytical portion will briefly explicate the comparing of relationship between Thai rubber exports with four factors ; rainfall, demand and supply, rubber monetary value and foreign exchange rate. It shows the factors ‘ tendency from 2006 to 2009.

Figure 12: Comparison of Relationship between Rubber Export and Rainfall

This shows the relationship tendency between gum elastic export and rainfall. As in the graph, rainfall somewhat decreases in 2006, so increases in 2007 and for 2009 rainfall lessenings by 9 % from 2008. Meanwhile export tendency from 2006 to 2008 slowly falls and strongly falls over in 2009. It seems like the gum elastic export may hold small affected by sum of rainfall as we ‘ve seen from the graph in the twelvemonth 2008 to 2009, when rainfall goes below the optimum sum that it should be, besides the gum elastic export decreases in sum.

Figure 13: Comparison of Relationship between Rubber Export and Demand and Supply

Figure shows the relationship between gum elastic export and demand and supply from 2006 to 2009. Concentrating on Thai supply curve and Thai rubber export, both curves are along which 2006 to 2008 chiefly stable but deeply lessening in 2009. For the motion of the universe demand curve comparing to Thai rubber export, these are really similar. The tendencies are increasing, but all fall down in 2009 agencies that while the universe demand is diminishing, Thai rubber export is diminishing excessively. These can be cited that the two factors, demand and supply, may hold affect on gum elastic export since their tendencies are along.

Figure 14: Comparison of Relationship between Rubber Export and Rubber Price

Figure 14 is shown the comparing of relationship between gum elastic export and its monetary value from 2007 to 2009, local gum elastic monetary value is monitored. The local gum elastic monetary value additions in 2007 and 2008 but so is get downing to diminish in 2009 every bit same as the gum elastic export which to a great extent decrease in sum of export in 2009. The gum elastic export may be affected by local gum elastic monetary value, such a instance of increasing in local gum elastic monetary value may increase the monetary value of export gum elastic, which this can be the of import point of fight between the export state.

Figure 15: Comparison of Relationship between Rubber Export and Exchange Ratess

Export Unit: ‘00000 dozenss

Thai Baht has been appreciating against US dollar since 2006. Furthermore in 2009, Thai Baht is really strong in value which makes the gum elastic more dearly-won for importers. Both tendencies, exchange rate and rubber export tendency, go along which somewhat fall from 2006 to 2008 and strongly diminish in 2009. As the comparative relationship of gum elastic export and Thailand exchange rate figure, it can be said that the grasp of Thai tical may impact on gum elastic export since during the appreciating, sum of gum elastic export is diminishing.

CORRELATION TEST AND RESULT

Figure 16: Correlation Test between Thai Rubber Export and Rainfall

Correlation

Rubber Export

Rain

Rubber Export

1

Rain

0.594666993

1

The correlativity coefficient is 0.59 refers to 59 % of the discrepancy may be related in the positive linear relationship. This means that gum elastic export and rainfall may hold positive relationship to each other, if the rainfall additions, rubber export may besides increases excessively.

Figure 17.1: Correlation Test between Thai Rubber Export and World Demand

Correlation

Rubber Export

World Demand

Rubber Export

1

World Demand

0.410960336

1

The correlativity coefficient of 0.41 which closed to zero, refers there is no additive relationship between the variables. Both rubber export and universe demand may non hold any relationship, both are independency.

Figure 17.2: Correlation Test between Thai Rubber Export and Thai Rubber Supply

Correlation

Rubber Export

Thai Rubber Supply

Rubber Export

1

Thai Rubber Supply

-0.83007

1

The correlativity coefficient is -0.83, the discrepancy may be related in the negative additive relationship. This means that gum elastic export and Thai rubber supply may hold negative relationship to each other, if the Thai rubber supply additions, rubber export may diminish.

Figure 18: Correlation Test between Thai Rubber Export and Rubber Price

Correlation

Rubber Export

Rubber Price

Rubber Export

1

Rubber Price

0.883805704

1

The correlativity coefficient is 0.88 refers to 88 % of the discrepancy may be related in the positive linear relationship. This means that gum elastic export and rubber monetary value may hold positive relationship to each other, if the gum elastic monetary value additions, rubber export may besides increases excessively.

Figure 19: Correlation Test between Thai Rubber Export and Foreign Exchange Rate

Correlation

Rubber Export

Exchange Rate

Rubber Export

1

Exchange Rate

0.338500539

1

The correlativity coefficient of 0.34 which closed to zero, refers there is no additive relationship between the variables. Both rubber export and exchange rate may non hold any relationship, both are independency.

Decision

Harmonizing to the research, Thai rubber export is continuously being diminishing and we have been focused on the probe of the four factors impacting Thai rubber export which are the alterations of conditions status, no-good demand and supply, rubber monetary value and foreign exchange rate. After we have collected informations from assorted beginnings, we so analyze it with the method of correlativity and the consequence indicates that there are some of the factors that we had researched may be non much consequence on gum elastic export, but some are extremely consequence on gum elastic export.

In correlativity trial on gum elastic export and rainfall the consequence shows that sum of rainfall could hold possible consequence to the gum elastic export ; if gum elastic export additions, rainfall will besides increases. However it is of import that we have to concern on the optimum temperature for gum elastic. From the research, we found that there was heavy rainfall which went above optimal temperature, therefore leads to the lessening in gum elastic production.

The consequence of correlativity in demand was 41 % , means that there were non much affect to the gum elastic export. For the consequence in correlativity of gum elastic supply and rubber export, it is evidently see that these two things may non be affected on each other. Although gum elastic supplies are high, rubber export may still be diminishing, this may associate to other factors instead than rubber supply.

On gum elastic monetary value correlativity trial, the consequence was 88 % which indicates that gum elastic monetary value is extremely consequence on gum elastic export. Harmonizing to the research information, heavy rainfall cause gum elastic monetary value to be lessenings due to the host factor and the lessening in supply. Therefore when there is good quality of gum elastic productions, the monetary value may be high, but people can afford to purchase due to the good and efficiency gum elastic production.

As you have seen on the consequence, exchange rate may non hold much consequence on gum elastic export although the information shows the relationship of these two.

As a consequence some of the factors that we had analyzed were non much affect to the lessening in gum elastic export. However the chief factors that could do the lessening in gum elastic export could be occurred by the universe economic crises every bit good as an addition petroleum oil monetary value.

Finally, in order to develop Thai rubber export to be compete with the rival, it is really of import that we need to develop good quality manure to utilize alternatively of chemical fertilize in order to cut down inputs cost, to better engineering development for the gum elastic industry so it is more or every bit effectual as such development in equal or rival states. Government policy should be clear and continual improve ordinances in order to function the international gum elastic concern, and assist them to happen new chances, and besides work to set up an international monetary value harmonizing to the universe monetary value.